Ad Spend Scaling & ROAS Profit Simulator
Forecast clicks, orders, revenue, and profit from an ad budget before you spend it.
How the Ad Spend & ROAS Simulator Works
Before you raise an ad budget, you should know what it is likely to return. A simple funnel model is enough to answer that: your budget buys clicks at a given price, a share of those clicks become orders, and each order brings in revenue that must also cover your product and fulfillment costs.
Enter your monthly budget, your cost per click, your conversion rate, your average order value, and the share of revenue that goes to product cost and fulfillment. The simulator projects clicks, orders, and revenue, then shows your actual ROAS next to your break-even ROAS and your net profit after ad spend. The card is green when your ROAS is more than 20% above break-even, blue when profit is positive but the buffer is thin, and red when you lose money.
Key Formulas Behind This Tool
- Projected Clicks: Monthly Ad Budget / Cost per Click
- Projected Orders: Clicks x Conversion Rate %
- Projected Revenue: Orders x Average Order Value
- Actual ROAS: Revenue / Ad Budget
- Break-Even ROAS: 1 / (1 - COGS and Fulfillment %)
- Net Profit After Ad Spend: (Revenue x (1 - COGS and Fulfillment %)) - Ad Budget
- Ad Cost per Order: Ad Budget / Orders
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How does the ad spend simulator forecast results?
It divides your budget by your cost per click to estimate clicks, multiplies the clicks by your conversion rate to estimate orders, and multiplies the orders by your average order value to estimate revenue. It then subtracts product and fulfillment costs and the ad spend itself to find net profit.
What should I enter for COGS plus fulfillment (%)?
Enter the share of your revenue that goes to product cost, shipping, payment fees, and any other per-order costs. If an average order brings in $50 and those costs total $30, enter 60.
What is break-even ROAS and why is it shown?
Break-even ROAS is the lowest return on ad spend at which you earn exactly zero profit after ad spend. If your actual ROAS is above it, the campaign is profitable. If it is below, you lose money on every ad dollar.
Will profit scale linearly if I increase my budget?
Not usually. As you spend more, CPC often rises and conversion rate can fall because you reach colder audiences. Re-run the simulator with a higher CPC and a lower conversion rate to stress-test a scaling plan.
What does "Cost per Order" mean in the results?
It is your ad cost to win one order, calculated as budget divided by orders. Compare it with the profit you earn on an order before ads to see how much room you have.